Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Where to invest now?

I have been trying to decide how I want to invest some new money, and I am having a very difficult time doing it. The current investment climate is just bad. On every front I see risks like Sovereign Default, Deflation, Inflation(not so much right now), Overwhelming debt at all levels of the economy, the list goes on and on. I find myself leery of putting more money into an IRA or 401K that goes on to support the Goldman Sach's of the world. I don't want a pile of Gold or a bunch of new in box guns in my closet either. Do I pay down debt, when I might lose my job in the Fall, and then lose the underlying asset anyway because I can't pay? I want to keep cash on hand in that scenario. So I find myself feeling an interesting conundrum, and I have to believe that this feeling is not only mine. What makes it hard is that I don't want to spend it either. I think this is probably a feeling penetrating our economy right now. It helps explain why our economy may be in a true deflationary spiral. People are holding on to their cash, and monetary velocity is almost nil. Don't want to spend, don't want to invest, until this feeling abates I see our economy slowly sliding downhill.

I do have some general investing thoughts:

Don't use the 'Too Big to Fail' Banks. You just feed the Borg if you do. Credit Unions are a relative island of peace and tranquility.

Avoid investing in Funds. Invest in stocks directly. You cut out the investing middlemen. You get to vote as a shareholder. You can still get a good yield if you look for it. You minimize the support of too big to fail, and you eliminate a lot of derivatives exposure. But, buying stocks implies you understand the company, and believe in it. Not easy to do.

Don't buy US bonds. The only place for US interest rates to go is up. Worldwide Sovereign Debt is a Volcano waiting to explode.

Everything I read says Peak Oil is real, and I believe in the theory. Investing in energy is a good bet. Buy energy stocks. Make your own life more energy efficient. Expensive oil will return.

If you don't a strong reason for owning an investment sell it.

That is all for now.

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